horse-racing

Greenham Stakes 2019 Horse Racing Preview & Tip

The Greenham Stakes (Saturday 13 April), sponsored by the Watership Down Stud, is a recognised classic-trial for the following month’s 2,000 Guineas. This Group 3 race was first run in 1931 and is run at Newbury over a trip of seven furlongs. Notable winners include Mill Reef, Risk Me, Turtle Island, Kingman, and Frankel.

Greenham Stakes 10-Year-Trends

  • Eight of the last 10 winners had already achieved a rating of at least 110
  • Five of the last 10 favourites have won, three at odds-on
  • SP’s of the winners have ranged from 1/4 to 16/1
  • The Hannon stable has trained three of the last nine winners

Greenham Stakes 2019 Main Contenders

Too Darn Hot

John Gosden’s Dubawi Colt won all four of his starts as a two-year-old in impressive fashion including the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on his final start. He’s already a short-priced favourite for the 2000 Guineas and is likely to be long odds-on to win this on his seasonal debut. If there’s any chink in his armour, it’s the fact he’s bred to be ideally suited by middle distances as his dam is Dar Re Mi, but class may prevail. Rated 126.

Boitron

Could only finish fourth in a Group 1 on his final start in France but had won his first three starts in decent fashion, including a Listed Race over course and distance. He probably lacks the class of the favourite but, as the Hannon stable target this race regularly, he should reward each-way backers. He could also pick up the pieces if Too Darn Hot has an off day. Rated 107.

Hello Youmzain

Winner of a Group 2 in France on his third and final start as a two-year-old, with all three of his runs last year being over six furlongs. However, sprinting types like Muhaarar and Tasleet have won this contest in the past and his sire Kodiac’s progeny often excel at seven furlongs. Rated 114.

Mohaather

First and second on his first two starts as a two-year-old over six furlongs and took a big step up when winning the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes over course and distance at odds of 33/1. He beat Azano into second that, who like Too Dar Hot is also trained by John Gosden, so Gosden probably has a decent form line to gauge how dangerous this colt is. Rated 108.

Great Scott

Won three of his five starts as a two-year-old and was only beaten 1¼ lengths into fifth in the Vertem Futurity Stakes on his final start of the season. Looks more exposed than most of the market leaders and may be better over further this season. Rated 110.

Greenham Stakes 2019 Summary

Too Darn Hot may live up to his name and win this Group 3 contest before heading to the 2,000 Guineas, but it’s hard to be interested in his price of around 1/3.

Taking the favourite on isn’t easy but, if you’re looking for one each-way against him, it could be worth taking a chance on Hello Youmzain. Kevin Ryan’s colt showed plenty of speed last year and Too Darn Hot could be vulnerable to a horse with a turn-of-foot over this distance.

Greenham Stakes Tip

Hello Youmzain (Each-Way)